Election latest: Labour '99% certain to beat 1997 landslide' - with 'enormous increase' in postal votes reported (2024)

Sophy's show is now turning to the issue of delays to the delivery of people's postal ballots.

Both the government and the Royal Mail have been trying to allay people's fears that they may not get their ballots in time, though some have had to resign themselves to not being able to vote as their ballots hadn't arrived before they went on holiday.

'Enormous increase' in postal votes

Vijay Rangarajan, chief executive at the Electoral Commission, the independent body which oversees elections, said he'd be "concerned if anyone was disenfranchised" as a result of delays.

He told Sky News earlier there had been an "enormous increase" in people choosing postal voting this year - with some 6.7 million ballots having already been sent to voters, filled in and returned.

"That's more than at this stage of the 2019 election," he said.

Mr Rangarajan admitted the system "is under quite a lot of pressure", predicting the number of postal votes to reach as high as 10 million.

That's partly down to Rishi Sunak having called the election to coincide with school summer holidays in Scotland.

But he did seek to reassure people who want to vote by post and still haven't been able to.

"People can put them in the mail as late as tomorrow, the day before polling day," he said, and still be confident they'll be counted.

Tory migration ministerTom Pursglove is now being asked about the Conservatives' Rwanda plan.

He says there are still 85,000 asylum claims that are still undecided, and Sophy Ridge asks if that means all of those people are effectively in a queue to go to Rwanda.

She points out that the scheme is expected to cost £500m to send 5,700 people.

"I just can't get my head around this. It feels ridiculous," she adds.

Mr Pursglove says the point of the policy is to be a deterrent and should help "to put out the business of evil criminal gangs".

He adds that there cannot be a "credible answer" on illegal migration if there isn't a destination to send people to.

"You cannot sit down with the Ayatollahs and talk about a returns' agreement," he says, referring to the leaders of Iran.

Tory minister Steve Baker told Politics Hub With Sophy Ridgelast night he would not rule out running for the party leadership after the election, should the Tories lose as expected.

We ask legal migration minister Tom Pursglove what he makes of his colleague's comments, and he replies: "I think all of us as Conservative politicians, people who are aspiring to become MPs at this election, should be focused on one job, which is to articulate the message on doorsteps over the course of the coming days, and the choice that people have on Thursday."

He says the election is not about "individual aspirations", but winning as many seats as possible.

'There's a job to be done'

Sophy puts to him that at least he was honest when asked, rather than dancing around the question, and Mr Pursglove replies: "I haven't really got much time for posturing.

"I think there's a job to be done, and voters expect us to be talking about them, the issues that they care about at this election."

Later in the interview, we ask the minister for his view on which political direction the Conservative Party should take going into the future.

Mr Pursglove quotes Margaret Thatcher, saying the party should be "on the common ground" and "where the majority of the British people are".

He says that means lower taxes and immigration reduced.

"I think those are the sort of issues that will describe the Conservative offer in the years ago," he adds.

Our deputy political editor Sam Coateshas been on the campaign trail in Banbury today - where Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have been out in full force.

It's a traditional Tory stronghold in Oxfordshire, and has been blue for more than 100 years.

While travelling back, Sam says he spoke to one member of the government, who told him: "I just want to lose."

"One member of the government was a bit worried that he might win," he says.

"He was a bit concerned that some polls were showing him in second place because the outlook for the party is so gloomy, he just wants to get out."

Another Tory candidate was saying that there was a better reception on the doorstep in the last few days.

Reacting to Survation's latest major poll, which puts the Conservatives with just 64 seats at the end of the election, Sam says that would be a "wipe out".

"I know Tories who are feeding into the campaign saying these are the kind of numbers that they are expecting too. It is looking very bad indeed," he adds.

There are just two days to go until the election, and people across the UK vote for the party they want to form the next government.

I know it's probably my job to drum up excitement about the election, to talk about jeopardy, to make it seem close - but let's get real.

We've all seen the polls, and the House of Commons projections.

We've all heard the Conservative message change throughout the campaign - until now the key line is people should vote to stop a Labour "supermajority".

You know a party isn't on course to win when the best they have to offer is "vote for us so we lose rather than get completely annihilated".

And you can also tell because the final skirmishes of the campaign are being fought in Banbury, which has been Conservative for 100 years.

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have both visited that leafy part of Oxfordshire in the dying days of the campaign, so I'm not going to insult your intelligence by trying to deny all the signs are pointing towards a comfortable Labour majority.

That's not to say it won't be exciting - we could be looking at only the second change of government in 27 years, and a complete redrawing of the political map of the UK.

The Labour Party is almost certainly going to win a majority bigger than Tony Blair's 179-seat majority in 1997, Survation's final MRP poll before the general election predicts.

The pollster says Sir Keir Starmer will win 484 seats out of 650 - giving him a majority of 318 seats.

The Tories are set to crash to just 64 seats - and the Lib Dems are predicted to make huge gains, winning 61 seats.

Labour is also predicted to overtake the SNP as the largest party in Scotland, with the governing party in Holyrood predicted to win just 10 seats.

Here are the results in full:

• Labour: 484
• Conservatives: 64
• Lib Dems: 61
• SNP: 10
• Reform UK: 7
• Green Party: 3
• Plaid Cymru: 3

The poll is based on 34,558 interviews, using data gathered up until 1 July.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgeis live now on Sky News.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Sophy is joined tonight by the Tory migration ministerTom Pursgloveand the Labour shadow employment ministerAlison McGovern.

On Sophy's panel tonight are:

• Jo Tanner, former Tory adviser;
• Sonia Sodha, chief lead writer at The Observer.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgefrom Monday to Thursday on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

Former Labour adviser Ayesha Hazarika is back with Sky's political editor Beth Rigby and Tory peer Ruth Davidson for the last few days of the election campaign.

On this episode, they discuss how Beth is preparing for election night – what constituencies to look out for, and they give a listener advice on election snacks.

They also discuss the final days of campaigning and why the Tories are attacking Sir Keir Starmer for suggesting he will finish work at 6pm on a Friday night if he becomes prime minister.

👉Click here to follow Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts👈

Email Beth, Ruth, and Ayesha at electoraldysfunction@sky.uk, post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444.

Disabled people have the right to vote independently and in secret - and local authorities have a legal duty to make sure they can do this.

There are minimum access requirements that must be in place at polling stations, and people who may have difficulties voting are also entitled to ask for help from staff.

Our reporter Josephine Frankslooks at what you need to know about voting as a disabled person, drawn from an advocate with lived experience, charities campaigning on accessible voting, and guidelines from the Electoral Commission:

We heard a short while ago from SNP leader John Swinney, and we asked him if he can see independence for Scotland within two or three years.

The first minister replied: "Yes, I can.

"About half the population in Scotland want Scotland to be an independent country, and I want to make sure people in Scotland have that choice.

"I can't impose that on them. I just want them to have that choice."

It falls to the UK government to allow for an independence referendum, but the SNP believes doing well at this election and the 2026 Holyrood vote would provide them with a mandate to demand one.

Both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have said they are opposed to another referendum in the next parliament.

Asked how he can win back support for the SNP, which has been dropping recently, Mr Swinney replied that anyone who wants independence for Scotland should back his party.

"We need independence because we are suffering just now because of austerity - a decision made in Westminster which is going to be carried on in Westminster.

"So if there was ever a clear illustration of why we need independence, it's to end austerity, and people will do that if they vote for the SNP in this election."